via bloggingthesingularity.com
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October 22nd, 2009
This chart shows that we are at a peak in the bubble since November 08. These stocks are now priced as high as they were before the crash. In a much worse economy one has to wonder how that can be justified. It seems clear the bubble will burst again and soon. Goog also seems to be a much better bet at this point than AAPL because it hasn't gone up as much as AAPL since Oct or Mar.
So you think Goog and Aapl would have been smart bets at over 100% returns huh?Check out the other charts here. DDRX which is a coffee franchise has over 6,000% growth you almost can't even see lil ol' AAPL anymore…
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October 22nd, 2009
via mentalhelp.net
So I was up today after 10:00. I awoke with an idea as I usually do. Some new conception, some new method or dream. This morning it was a vision of an open path before me – not in the hiking trail sense but as an option to a life or a time of life that I could of could not partake in. I meandered to the bathroom this morning instead of going directly to the computer to get my thought down, and as I was finishing up brushing my teeth I was debating whether I should take the extra time to shave before getting my idea down. Meanwhile I had had several other ideas that needed getting down too, and I was beginning to worry I’d loose them all in my shaving cream.
I decided to stay and shave first and then allowed one more small delay before heading to email. As I left the bathroom I had lost my ideas or they had become somewhat foggy (I’m not too sure anymore), so I went to eat first and hoped they’d return. Once downstairs I glanced at the clock to see how long all these extra steps had taken me before getting to eat and was shocked to see that all my hygiene had only cost me 25 min or so since it was still before 10:30.
I began to get started feeding and caffeinating myself and went into my usual routine of trying to get out all the dishes and condiments I would need in the fewest amount of steps while simultaneously attempting to have every appliance running while I was running. This took about another 20 min.
Finally, I sat down to check my email. Adjust some blog SEO settings, and such, and another 20 min passed by in the blink of an eye. I was realizing that nothing that I had done up to this point was worth anything productive only maintenance and I felt very impatient to be done eating as I paced around the kitchen whilst chewing my toast – for some reason I feel more productive if I pace while I am forced to spend time on maintenance, in this case eating.
I remember that there was a point where I was trying to get my coffee ready to drink and I debated stirring it again for the sake of losing an extra couple of seconds. This is the point where at least my third idea of the day had hit me:
What could I accomplish if I were forced to move as slow as possible, but only in the right direction? Meaning that if I were forced to dial the phone extreeeeeemely slowly, but dialing and booking and selling were all the actions I could do… No wasting time on email, random internet searching about questions that aren’t immediately necessary, no blogging, no thinking, just doing that action which makes me the most money per unit time, definitely, guaranteed.
I began to think I would get a lot more done. Speed, multitasking, and of course pacing, really mean nothing then. So stir your coffee, eat your breakfast, shave, shower, exercise, stretch, do yoga, walk the dog, feed the cat, do the pushups, eat the vitamin, and listen to anyone who wants to talk to you because these aren’t the thieves that are stealing your time. You are giving it away to all the other stuff that you can’t remember doing, not all the things you need and want to do everyday.
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October 22nd, 2009
via flickr.com
From: “DeLong, RJ”
Date: October 21, 2009 9:07:12 PM GMT-04:00
To: Greg Sax
Subject: Fatalism
Fatalism, hmmm, I remember that being different than determinism, which I was utterly convinced about back in college. It’s interesting because you start to see life as this inexorable path that you are moving down, like a train on rails, and you know that everything that is happening is a result of millions of years of subatomic and astronomic billiard ball collisions which bypass trillions of conditional what ifs and almosts to add up to now.
Fatalism seems to reject determinism bc if I understand it correctly it says that even if one of those or all of those conditions were the opposite you’d still end up exactly where you will. So it seems fatalism is really saying the future is a magnet of sorts and no matter what the past is it will end up sucking it in – the future determines the past in a sense, whereas determinism is the opposite of course. Fatalism is one force, maybe the ying, maybe the yang, which is the same as God or the Universe, and we and all life are the opposite, always trying to change something by existing, moving, breathing, etc. And one fights against the other. We pull the rubber band and it pulls us back.
I guess that is why I think of fate differently than destiny. I do believe in both though which I suppose is a contradiction. But life was fated to be determined or determined to be fated. Free will seems to be a misnomer more than a false conception. We have will but it isn’t free; it’s caused. Nature and nurture too seem both to be true and related to these ideas. Nature brings about fate while nurture fights it simultaneously causing our illusion of a FREE will since it tries to bump us from our rail. However, it doesn’t free us at all.
So you have:
nature = innate drives, emotions, temperment, etc
nurture = all culture, memes, ideas, law, etc.
And then you have that voice that debates and analyzes everything you feel and hear, but what is that voice?
Isn’t it true that that “inner you” is the observing 3rd party? Maybe its half nurture and half nature, meaning it really doesn’t exist at all. All you are is just a big sack of ideas each fighting for agreement and validity with all the rest. All the while the macro organism that really isn’t anything except the combined effect of dozens of organs mechanically trying to stay alive and doing what they naturally do, which happen to coordinate and harmonize so well, plods along: stimulus, response, stimulus, response…
If you listen carefully enough perhaps you’ll hear the silence which is the gap between that inner self and the outer body and world, then you’ll hear the “creak” of your macro organism as it is racked with just any old stimulus: a thought as it gets up to get another cup of coffee or brush its teeth… and then you’ll flood back into the you that you always are and you still won’t have figured anything out. I think you’re destined and fated and determined to stumble upon something sooner or later that no one else has ever thought of, as long as you keep thinking, which you’ll inevitably do.
What does the philosophy of science have to say?
RJ
On Oct 21, 2009, at 7:49 PM, Greg Sax wrote:
…recently teaching classes on fatalism and the philosophy of science…
Greg
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October 19th, 2009
via ted.com
I like the part about the ancient conception of genius. @ 6:15
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October 9th, 2009
via ted.com
Tesla coils. Electricity to magnetism then back into electricity.
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October 8th, 2009
via ted.com
“We can design the future through investment.”
Computers: Moore’s Law to continue until 2020, and that a $1,000 computer today will cost only $10 in 2020. Talks about software not keeping up with hardware, which means there is and will only be more demand for good software.
Nanotubes: explains details about all their amazing properties.
Risk of pandemic: demand for antiviral cocktails.
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October 7th, 2009
October 1st, 2009
To make the math easier without decimals…
If you had a choice between taking $10,000,000 a day for this entire month or accepting $1 today and having the dollar double every day for the remainder of the month, which would you select?
Well, 10,000,000 * 30 days = $300,000,000
11 doublings = 1024
21 doublings = 1,048,576
26 doublings = 33,554,432
30 doublings = 536,870,912
Hard to believe?
Now imagine 40 days
2^40 = 1,099,511,627,776 which is 1 Trillion.
Now consider information processing power. In 1965, Gordon Moore of Intel predicted it would double every year, then revised that estimate to every two years (Moore’s Law). It has been doubling every 18 months or so for the last 44 years. Computer processing power has had 26 doublings, which means we are right at that point when we start to realize how fast we are about to go. We are at the part of the curve where its about to go straight vertical. It took us 44 years to get to this point, but in just another 18 months we’ll add as much as we did in the last 44 years combined!
Who cares about computers, what does this all mean?
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